I’m sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but this will happen. Dobbs made it a near certainty and Whitmer winning with this strategy was the test case. It worked.
The Republicans overturn absurd and cruel laws like Alabama’s and remove abortion from their platform altogether, and make a very very very big deal about this. “As we said during the vaccine mandates, we believe in bodily autonomy.“ Then there’s a chance, but not much of one. Americans have never been fond of having rights removed.
The only other possibility is that the Republicans elect a strongly pro-choice candidate in the primary. That would dampen the appeal of the turn out strategy I’ve outlined here. But the Republicans went so hard on states rights that this may not help enough.
I just deleted a response that was "Normal people navigate these differences pretty easily." because it was ringing in my ears and started to sound condescending. As if you weren't a normal person.
You may be right that Kamala Harris will be the first woman elected president, but it won't be for the reason you think. The PTB will have selected her as part of their sadistic and ongoing plan to demoralize and vanquish conservatives along with the republic for which they stand. In 2024 conservatives won’t have a chance, even if we have hyperinflation, nuclear winter, and mandated drag queen class for 5-year-olds. Voting will not matter. The entire thing is a farce, the anonymous power brokers know it and they want us to know it, too. When abominations like Fedderman and Biden/Harris can get elected, there is no hope.
Eh, I've heard talk this almost every week since I was a small child from the people on the right who raised me. Trump still got elected. The right has lots of victories. There are raped middle schoolers being required to gestate and eventually give birth to their half-siblings right now, this minute, in Alabama and Oklahoma. I don't think there's any grand conspiracy to stop conservatives from getting what they want. That is not to say I think every election is pure as the driven snow or that conspiracies, fraud, etc., never happen. They do. I just think the idea that voting doesn't matter at all is a bit over the top.
REALLY hoping you end up being wrong on this one (for my own sanity) but the Right may be JUST dumb enough to let it happen😑 I've been doubting their ability to learn my entire life and they've just kept on proving that I was correct to do so.
They are indeed dumb enough to let it happen. A dramatic underperformance on this scale should cause them to stop and ask themselves, "Why are we failing so badly to appeal to voters, and how can we fix that?" Instead, it's causing them to angrily emote how stupid and undeserving of their rights those voters are, and to swear to double down.
The Republicans remind me of those guys who go on dating sites, put all kinds of sexist and gross shit on their profiles, and then when they don't get dates, decide it's because women are stupid and feminism has ruined the west. That they might be able to change their presentation and appeal to potential dates a little better simply does not occur to them.
Sigh.... Well, at least she isn't #DementiaJoe. I would have voted blue if he'd taken Nina Turner as his VP. Or Bernie. But anyhow, I'm done voting blue after 30 years of support.
The GOP might want us barefoot, pregnant, and in the kitchen, but at least they know what women are, unlike the dickpandering Democrats.
Rethuglicans don't care about women's rights. Dems pay lip service but deliver nothing. I'd rather be ignored than betrayed. I'm so glad I'm sterile since 1995.
Nope, don’t think this will come to pass. There have been suggestions that the 2024 election will be contested no matter who runs and who wins. People think the VP job automatically means the presidential position. It use to, but now, given her gaffs, lack of international exposure, and no pull on the democrats side I just can’t see it. She doesn’t have supporters, a manager, and she is lost in a sea of potentially better candidates.
I can see your point about Trump and DeSantis. Split vote, and the fact that the republican lack the spine and any innovative thinkers, well we are just screwed.
If things get really bad, inflation, debt, war, food and gas it will be a win for republicans. This happened in my lifetime Carter/Regan. It will be something to tell your kids, grandkids, I remember when gas was $3.40 per gallon
I very much hope you're right. My question for you is how will today's Democratic party not run the first woman of color to hold the Vice Presidency? I really want to believe this is possible, but I need a coherent narrative for why they would give in to racists and misogynists like that (which is how it'll be portrayed, endlessly and relentlessly).
The democrats want to win. With the current VP no way in hell they would win. She doesn’t have the internal support, intelligence, experience to run the office. Run her next to Trump, or DeSantis it would be a tie. Currently Washington DC is in need of a body cleanse. You can call people racists and misogynists and guess what happens, people turn on YOU. You are a part of XYZ party, I’m not voting for them! Tit for tat. Also the media will pick the next democrat presidential candidate. I really wonder if they stay with Biden or go to someone totally out of the blue. Again think of Nixon/Ford and Carter eras and missteps.
Calling people racists and misogynists worked pretty damn well for the Democrats, who just had an historically amazing midterms by any post-WW2 standard, and when you consider Biden's unpopularity and the economy being bad it's even more amazing. And why would the media not love the idea of promoting the first woman of color to hold high office?
Holly, I really trust your insights, but I don't totally understand how what the Dems are going to do with states rights put Kamala in the WH. Would you expand on your views in another essay? In the 2020 campaign, the GOP went soft on the affairs she used to get to the top, but they won't next time. I think someone else can win. I wound up messaging with Allie Beth Stuckey about abortion yesterday. She's intransigent. But I believe cooler GOP strategists will prevail. Most Americans support some abortion access, maybe till 16-20 weeks. The Right will have to compromise, or they'll never win a national election. I just tweeted your piece to her and to Delano Squires. I hope it will persuade them.
Look at what happened in Michigan. Whitmer won, even though she was unpopular over her COVID response. They put an abortion measure on the ballot to drive turnout. Look at Kentucky. They put an abortion measure on the ballot and even though they mostly lost still (it's Kentucky) Democrats over-performed.
I think Harris will be the nominee because there's no way to tell the first woman of color to hold high office to go away if you're the party of DEI bullshit, and we now have proof that abortion initiatives will drive turnout in favor of Democrats in red (Kentucky), purple (Michigan), and blue (Vermont, California) states.
The reason that ABS and others will never bend is that winning elections doesn't matter to them. Nor does saving babies, by the way. We've had good data for years that the #1 reason for abortion is that a woman already has kids and is struggling to get by financially for the kids she already has. As a direct result of overturning Roe, the right to abortion is being enshrined in states, at any time and for any reason, so absent refusing to allow women to travel to other states (which it wouldn't surprise me if they eventually try, though the Supreme Court wouldn't let it stand) they will not stop any abortions.
But they all get to LOOK LIKE they care about saving babies. They get to virtue-signal what good Christians they are.
I'm going through past emails and ran across this one from last year. Some of the things you are saying I agree with. The GOP seems to be the most brain-dead party when it comes to understanding their own constituents, and they have been this way for decades. I consider myself a liberal. I voted for Dukakis in 1988 as the first Presidential candidate for whom I was old enough to vote (now you have a general idea of how old I am). I have similar skepticism about fundamental Christians and the so-called moral majority. I am a writer. If I can't have enough license to write what is on my mind without the threat of censorship or prison (that's on the table in other countries), then my trade is undercut. My consideration for free speech is the cornerstone issue I have with the modern Left. They look indistinguishable from the Moral Majority of the 1980s.
Now, the abortion rights issue: there is a lot of nuance going on there where the right continues to allow themselves to be maligned by the semantic manipulations of the Left. I think that the poor jurisprudence of the Roe v. Wade ruling in the 1970s left this issue open for five decades, and the actual issue with abortion is not an all-or-nothing issue as the Left continues to characterize it. The right believes that life is sacred. I agree with them on that. On the other hand, up to a certain time in the term of a pregnancy, there should be an option to back out of it, and that has varied from state to state. I think the Left's argument to terminate the life of a child up to the date of birth is an appalling proposition all around. At that point, the infant is fully developed and can breathe on its own, so termination past that point where all the organs are developed is a horrible idea.
I think that many on the right would agree that while it is not right to terminate the life of a child, there are many instances where critical questions come into play - like, complications that threaten the life of mother, child, or both. Those are heart-wrenching circumstances I don't envy anyone. And those circumstances should be taken into account with regard to these arguments, and the right, frustratingly, never really gets to articulate that they are in favor of allowing these circumstances to come into consideration when determining whether a pregnancy can be terminated without legal consequences. But there is also an option that never gets discussed when we're talking about this, and that is the adoption system. If the issue is that a woman cannot raise a child due to circumstances such as she is unmarried, has no support system, or other situations (too many to delineate), couldn't they opt to submit their child to a reputable adoption agency? And do you suppose that couples who desperately want children but cannot have their own could be linked into a network that connects them to mothers who give up their children for adoption rather than raise them because they just cannot handle it? Are we not sure that there might be options to pursue other than terminating life in these circumstances? Can we not find solution where everyone wins, including that new life?
I consider myself pretty libertarian, and I don't mean the "I got mine, what are you going to do?" libertarian, but a libertarian who sees the government as a cold, unfeeling entity that fails to do anything it claims to do for the people it claims it is helping out of a combination of incompetence and lack of concern. I am the kind of person who has seen government fail at everything when it comes to helping the less fortunate, and private organizations and community have been far superior in dealing with personal issues. And the abortion issue is one of those things that the debate has failed everyone because it has done more to divide us than solve anything.
It is yet another frustration I have with the Republican Party, even though I am currently aligned with them to an extent on the issues with the modern Left. They just don't have the strategic thinking to prevent an eventual Revolution by the neo-Marxist Left that is going to take place.
As for Kamala winning in 2024, I think that developments since this prediction was made have shown that is not likely. However, the next election will elect a Democrat because elections are for show to give us the illusion of choice. The next President will be whoever wins the Democratic Party nomination. I doubt it will be Biden, but I don't think it will be Harris, either.
I’m sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but this will happen. Dobbs made it a near certainty and Whitmer winning with this strategy was the test case. It worked.
The Republicans overturn absurd and cruel laws like Alabama’s and remove abortion from their platform altogether, and make a very very very big deal about this. “As we said during the vaccine mandates, we believe in bodily autonomy.“ Then there’s a chance, but not much of one. Americans have never been fond of having rights removed.
The only other possibility is that the Republicans elect a strongly pro-choice candidate in the primary. That would dampen the appeal of the turn out strategy I’ve outlined here. But the Republicans went so hard on states rights that this may not help enough.
I think this is absolutely going to happen.
I just deleted a response that was "Normal people navigate these differences pretty easily." because it was ringing in my ears and started to sound condescending. As if you weren't a normal person.
But, they do.
You’re right.
But maybe, somehow, we can bring about an alternative timeline in which there is not a President Harris.
You may be right that Kamala Harris will be the first woman elected president, but it won't be for the reason you think. The PTB will have selected her as part of their sadistic and ongoing plan to demoralize and vanquish conservatives along with the republic for which they stand. In 2024 conservatives won’t have a chance, even if we have hyperinflation, nuclear winter, and mandated drag queen class for 5-year-olds. Voting will not matter. The entire thing is a farce, the anonymous power brokers know it and they want us to know it, too. When abominations like Fedderman and Biden/Harris can get elected, there is no hope.
Eh, I've heard talk this almost every week since I was a small child from the people on the right who raised me. Trump still got elected. The right has lots of victories. There are raped middle schoolers being required to gestate and eventually give birth to their half-siblings right now, this minute, in Alabama and Oklahoma. I don't think there's any grand conspiracy to stop conservatives from getting what they want. That is not to say I think every election is pure as the driven snow or that conspiracies, fraud, etc., never happen. They do. I just think the idea that voting doesn't matter at all is a bit over the top.
Your prediction has been noted.
You make a good case. Personally, I don't have any idea.
REALLY hoping you end up being wrong on this one (for my own sanity) but the Right may be JUST dumb enough to let it happen😑 I've been doubting their ability to learn my entire life and they've just kept on proving that I was correct to do so.
They are indeed dumb enough to let it happen. A dramatic underperformance on this scale should cause them to stop and ask themselves, "Why are we failing so badly to appeal to voters, and how can we fix that?" Instead, it's causing them to angrily emote how stupid and undeserving of their rights those voters are, and to swear to double down.
The Republicans remind me of those guys who go on dating sites, put all kinds of sexist and gross shit on their profiles, and then when they don't get dates, decide it's because women are stupid and feminism has ruined the west. That they might be able to change their presentation and appeal to potential dates a little better simply does not occur to them.
Sigh.... Well, at least she isn't #DementiaJoe. I would have voted blue if he'd taken Nina Turner as his VP. Or Bernie. But anyhow, I'm done voting blue after 30 years of support.
The GOP might want us barefoot, pregnant, and in the kitchen, but at least they know what women are, unlike the dickpandering Democrats.
Rethuglicans don't care about women's rights. Dems pay lip service but deliver nothing. I'd rather be ignored than betrayed. I'm so glad I'm sterile since 1995.
i won't be voting for Copmala.
The Republicans think we're baby incubators. The Democrats think we're emotional support animals for trannies. I refuse to vote for either.
Nope, don’t think this will come to pass. There have been suggestions that the 2024 election will be contested no matter who runs and who wins. People think the VP job automatically means the presidential position. It use to, but now, given her gaffs, lack of international exposure, and no pull on the democrats side I just can’t see it. She doesn’t have supporters, a manager, and she is lost in a sea of potentially better candidates.
I can see your point about Trump and DeSantis. Split vote, and the fact that the republican lack the spine and any innovative thinkers, well we are just screwed.
If things get really bad, inflation, debt, war, food and gas it will be a win for republicans. This happened in my lifetime Carter/Regan. It will be something to tell your kids, grandkids, I remember when gas was $3.40 per gallon
I very much hope you're right. My question for you is how will today's Democratic party not run the first woman of color to hold the Vice Presidency? I really want to believe this is possible, but I need a coherent narrative for why they would give in to racists and misogynists like that (which is how it'll be portrayed, endlessly and relentlessly).
The democrats want to win. With the current VP no way in hell they would win. She doesn’t have the internal support, intelligence, experience to run the office. Run her next to Trump, or DeSantis it would be a tie. Currently Washington DC is in need of a body cleanse. You can call people racists and misogynists and guess what happens, people turn on YOU. You are a part of XYZ party, I’m not voting for them! Tit for tat. Also the media will pick the next democrat presidential candidate. I really wonder if they stay with Biden or go to someone totally out of the blue. Again think of Nixon/Ford and Carter eras and missteps.
Calling people racists and misogynists worked pretty damn well for the Democrats, who just had an historically amazing midterms by any post-WW2 standard, and when you consider Biden's unpopularity and the economy being bad it's even more amazing. And why would the media not love the idea of promoting the first woman of color to hold high office?
Holly, I really trust your insights, but I don't totally understand how what the Dems are going to do with states rights put Kamala in the WH. Would you expand on your views in another essay? In the 2020 campaign, the GOP went soft on the affairs she used to get to the top, but they won't next time. I think someone else can win. I wound up messaging with Allie Beth Stuckey about abortion yesterday. She's intransigent. But I believe cooler GOP strategists will prevail. Most Americans support some abortion access, maybe till 16-20 weeks. The Right will have to compromise, or they'll never win a national election. I just tweeted your piece to her and to Delano Squires. I hope it will persuade them.
Look at what happened in Michigan. Whitmer won, even though she was unpopular over her COVID response. They put an abortion measure on the ballot to drive turnout. Look at Kentucky. They put an abortion measure on the ballot and even though they mostly lost still (it's Kentucky) Democrats over-performed.
I think Harris will be the nominee because there's no way to tell the first woman of color to hold high office to go away if you're the party of DEI bullshit, and we now have proof that abortion initiatives will drive turnout in favor of Democrats in red (Kentucky), purple (Michigan), and blue (Vermont, California) states.
The reason that ABS and others will never bend is that winning elections doesn't matter to them. Nor does saving babies, by the way. We've had good data for years that the #1 reason for abortion is that a woman already has kids and is struggling to get by financially for the kids she already has. As a direct result of overturning Roe, the right to abortion is being enshrined in states, at any time and for any reason, so absent refusing to allow women to travel to other states (which it wouldn't surprise me if they eventually try, though the Supreme Court wouldn't let it stand) they will not stop any abortions.
But they all get to LOOK LIKE they care about saving babies. They get to virtue-signal what good Christians they are.
Religion is a hell of a drug.
I'm going through past emails and ran across this one from last year. Some of the things you are saying I agree with. The GOP seems to be the most brain-dead party when it comes to understanding their own constituents, and they have been this way for decades. I consider myself a liberal. I voted for Dukakis in 1988 as the first Presidential candidate for whom I was old enough to vote (now you have a general idea of how old I am). I have similar skepticism about fundamental Christians and the so-called moral majority. I am a writer. If I can't have enough license to write what is on my mind without the threat of censorship or prison (that's on the table in other countries), then my trade is undercut. My consideration for free speech is the cornerstone issue I have with the modern Left. They look indistinguishable from the Moral Majority of the 1980s.
Now, the abortion rights issue: there is a lot of nuance going on there where the right continues to allow themselves to be maligned by the semantic manipulations of the Left. I think that the poor jurisprudence of the Roe v. Wade ruling in the 1970s left this issue open for five decades, and the actual issue with abortion is not an all-or-nothing issue as the Left continues to characterize it. The right believes that life is sacred. I agree with them on that. On the other hand, up to a certain time in the term of a pregnancy, there should be an option to back out of it, and that has varied from state to state. I think the Left's argument to terminate the life of a child up to the date of birth is an appalling proposition all around. At that point, the infant is fully developed and can breathe on its own, so termination past that point where all the organs are developed is a horrible idea.
I think that many on the right would agree that while it is not right to terminate the life of a child, there are many instances where critical questions come into play - like, complications that threaten the life of mother, child, or both. Those are heart-wrenching circumstances I don't envy anyone. And those circumstances should be taken into account with regard to these arguments, and the right, frustratingly, never really gets to articulate that they are in favor of allowing these circumstances to come into consideration when determining whether a pregnancy can be terminated without legal consequences. But there is also an option that never gets discussed when we're talking about this, and that is the adoption system. If the issue is that a woman cannot raise a child due to circumstances such as she is unmarried, has no support system, or other situations (too many to delineate), couldn't they opt to submit their child to a reputable adoption agency? And do you suppose that couples who desperately want children but cannot have their own could be linked into a network that connects them to mothers who give up their children for adoption rather than raise them because they just cannot handle it? Are we not sure that there might be options to pursue other than terminating life in these circumstances? Can we not find solution where everyone wins, including that new life?
I consider myself pretty libertarian, and I don't mean the "I got mine, what are you going to do?" libertarian, but a libertarian who sees the government as a cold, unfeeling entity that fails to do anything it claims to do for the people it claims it is helping out of a combination of incompetence and lack of concern. I am the kind of person who has seen government fail at everything when it comes to helping the less fortunate, and private organizations and community have been far superior in dealing with personal issues. And the abortion issue is one of those things that the debate has failed everyone because it has done more to divide us than solve anything.
It is yet another frustration I have with the Republican Party, even though I am currently aligned with them to an extent on the issues with the modern Left. They just don't have the strategic thinking to prevent an eventual Revolution by the neo-Marxist Left that is going to take place.
As for Kamala winning in 2024, I think that developments since this prediction was made have shown that is not likely. However, the next election will elect a Democrat because elections are for show to give us the illusion of choice. The next President will be whoever wins the Democratic Party nomination. I doubt it will be Biden, but I don't think it will be Harris, either.