I know my life has been an outlier, but even so, almost every woman I know has recently had the thought, "Holy shit, if the other guys hadn't heard me screaming at that party that one time and he'd done what he was trying to do? I could've ended up required by law to share a child with him." Or has helped a friend through the aftermath of a rape. Or has found out later that an antibiotic would've nullified the pill and gotten on her knees in gratitude that her husband was on a business trip that week. And so on and so forth. These issues are rarely totally unfamiliar to women; rather, they're not often more than one degree of separation away to any woman with sisters or close female friends, anyway.
Definitely familiar. I am a moderate myself on the issue, and I think it’s seldom wise to do anything but walk the middle). I don’t disagree with you; overall it’s a hopeless and sad reason to have a law or not, it is 100% barbaric, and I get that laws are there to protect women but also that children need protection, inside the womb and out, and my conclusion is convoluted. I think there need to be absolute exceptions for violent crimes. The rest is the way life happens and we can’t control it. With every other crime we have appropriate punishment for the offender but do not legally address consequences for the victim (civil trials notwithstanding) so this in theory is a very different sort of law with almost no precedent and it’s right that humans should struggle with it.
The only thing I would say is that your argument for abortion is your argument. The national argument for it is that it isn’t a child, thereby leading to its own set or barbaric conclusions (instead of making rape victims carry a baby to term, they allow viable fetuses to be removed). This is not an admirable position (yours by contrast is compassionate).
This is why I think moderation is necessary - both arguments have fatal flaws.
As for the economy, a real test will be whether we go into a full blown energy crisis this upcoming winter- especially for you folks in places that get real winter, IE the Northeast.
Elites are more insulated (pun intended) than the rest of us, and elites run the Corporate Press who are brown-nosers to the regime. Gas prices are sure to pop back up, there are likely shortages of diesel and heating oil, and despite Biden’s abuse of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to effectively subsidize oil prices, that option is about to run out.
We’re likely already in a recession too. Give it a few weeks now that the midterms are over and all the corporate press outlets will be squawking in unison about it.
I listen to friends who are older than me well enough that I started planning for this. I started the winter with a credit with the gas company that was equal to what I spent on gas all *last* winter. I don't expect that to last me all winter, of course, as the shortages are coming and prices will go up, but it should mean I never run into a reason to panic. *fingers crossed*
I suspected (from across the pond) that abortion would play badly for the GOP. I always thought the US was more socially conservative on this issue than, say, the UK or France or Italy. But it's not. It's in about the same place - as later polls disclosed. Once that happens with a social issue, the religious conservatives who still uphold their distinctive values on point must simply stop basing their politics on it - because this is what happens otherwise.
If SCOTUS kills affirmative action, however, that, I suspect, will be very popular.
Yes! I didn't vote. Some of my (deeply conservative and even religious) friends in Alabama didn't vote, after realizing that they'd damn well better drive out of state if they have a possible ectopic pregnancy, since "imminent danger of death" is open to interpretation. (Does it require the ectopic to rupture, or not?) My friend in ND voted, but for the others. Abortion might only matter once in someone's life, but when it matters, it *really* matters.
I voted, because there were local constitutional amendments and bond issues I wanted to weigh in on, and there was also one race that *only* had a Democrat and a Libertarian, so, obviously I had to try and help *that* dude out. ;)
I did sort of the opposite thing. There were 12 county judge seats where everyone ran unopposed. I.e., Joe Smith was the Democrat, the Republican, and the conservative party candidate. I simply refused to vote. The fewer votes they have, the less likely they are to think they have a mandate. Of course, our Brooklyn pols are likely too stupid for even that level of ratiocination.
Oh sure. Where it was uncontested, I didn't vote. But I really wanted to vote for a libertarian in a race where they might get a significant percentage of the vote, because it helps them will ballot access in the future. As for bond issues and the like, I feel like they're going to claim *more* of a mandate if it's 90-10 instead of 65-35. So I feel it's important to go be part of the 35 saying "No, you shouldn't spend that money." On a philosophical level, I agree that it shouldn't even be *subject* to a vote, but since it is, I might as well register my displeasure in the one way that's allowed. :-/
I mean... I am definitely libertarian aligned, so, if the worst case scenario is that a libertarian actually *wins* the office of "State Auditor"... well, I can live with that. :D
Oh my god, you’re right about Trump and I hate that. I voted for him twice but I no longer believe that he would be a good choice for our country.
I’m also having a very large and difficult problem reconciling my belief that life begins at implantation, with my “my body, my choice” stance on the Covid shot. I think I’ll fall back on “keep your laws off my body” and say that every abortion should be a decision made with one’s doctor, but I also live in a very Blue state and haven’t had to deal with the intense Christian values that I know exist elsewhere. I’m also 51 and had my tubes tied after my 3rd child was born.
Tough times we live in. Thanks for a good write up.
I think this is a big part of why the Republicans didn't make the advances they should have based on COVID lockdowns and vaccine mandates -- they sneered, "My body, my choice" about vaccines, and then cheered Roe vs Wade being overturned. It seemed like naked political bullshit, not principled objection to authoritarianism. At least, it seemed that way to me.
> they sneered, "My body, my choice" about vaccines
But c'mon now. That was itself obviously a dig at the folks who have been using that slogan for several decades and then turned around and threatened to put people in concentration camps and deny them lifesaving medical care if they refused the Jab.
I *agree* that it's hypocritical, but it's hardly one sided.
But the results are about on par with what I expected once the GOP started sabotaging its own chances with all this abortion crap. (As in, I made this precise prediction in several places. ;) ) I'm disappointed (that they weren't able to be smart about abortion) because I'm pretty sure the only thing that would have potentially staved off a full blown Depression is the adults being in charge of the economy again.
I agree that the "my body my choice" sneering was meant to be a dig, but plenty of them seemingly made serious bodily autonomy arguments, which was such obvious hypocritical bullshit that it made it hard to take them seriously about anything.
And yep, they aren't going to learn a fucking thing. What I'm seeing is mostly "those stupid (c words), I hope they suffer forevermore" and "I used to be moderate on abortion, now I want them all carrying rape babies to term, because fuck them". In which case, the left will win every election forever.
I have insanely low self-esteem and my usual response to abuse is to tolerate it, on and on and on, but even I have too much self-respect to vote for the GOP if it heads in that direction. Hoping very much this is all just day-after bloviating and they don't mean it. Time will tell.
Yeah, I get it. I found the use of the phrase vastly hypocritical from both sides over the last three years. Having the unfortunate ability to be *very* good at Devil's Advocate, I can see how they'd claim that it's different because there's another entity involved in an abortion, and I'd even **agree** that it does make them somewhat different... but not enough to justify overruling the autonomy of the woman involved for a *very* long time. Meaning, at like, 7 months, I feel comfortable declaring that a woman who no longer wished to be pregnant with an otherwise healthy 7 month fetus (and yes, I'm using something that's well past any fuzzy line that might be drawn) should probably be required to remove that fetus in the least destructive manner possible.
I hear you on the self-esteem issue, I have similar problems.
Hanging out in a primarily libertarian environment, what I'm seeing is a lot of denial that the R abortion position had very much to do with the results, and that there's likely election shenanigans. Which is sort of a whole different pile of facepalm, but, whatever. Oi. *facedesk*
Out of curiosity, I just looked up abortion law in Florida. 15 weeks with exceptions for maternal or fetal health. Something imperfect but reasonable. Imagine that! None of the extremist bullshit of the other red states. If only the Republican party could *learn something* from this, then there might be a snowball's chance in hell of a different outcome in 2024.
Narrator: the Republican party would not, in fact, learn a fucking thing.
As in so many things, they need a sane expert to look at their laws before they try to pass them. In this case, an actual doctor. In many other things I care about, someone who actually knows a single fucking thing about computers. Etc, etc, etc.
The issue with your friend in AL should never have happened. Even a "fetal heartbeat" law should have let a woman with a ***dead*** fetus have that removed. I realize I'm preaching to the choir there, but I'm just so utterly appalled at the simple incompetence of merely the legislative process there that I can't not say it.
People are disappointed. I really thought "not Hochul" would beat Hochul because people were disgusted by what they did to older people, kids, businesses, our cities, etc. Maybe they've moved on. Maybe they don't like change. Maybe they really believe that a Governor could ban abortion in the state of NY if he felt like it, which he couldn't. I think "not Hochul" ran a good campaign. He came really close and this is NY. It's my mistake for daring to hope that someone who did my family harm gets to lord over us again.
Is it just a matter of urban vs rural? I don't know much about NY, but this outcome makes sense to me if people in NYC tend to see the COVID danger one way and be ok with the lockdowns and such, and others disagree, but the NYC population outweighs the rest of the state. Is that what it was?
I think it was mainly fear of change plus the perception that the other guy was an extremist. Because as you know, to progressives, there is only one right, namely the far right. I got a lot of direct mail to that effect, as one would anticipate
Everyone does this, all the time. The reason a red wave was expected is that the general consensus was that people would be *fearful* that Democrats would keep doing what they're doing.
You are probably right that this issue might have dampened the Republicans' success more than polls would suggest at first blush.
Also, if one subscribes to the theory that Republicans (or a subset of them) collude with Democrats to always be the minority "fake opposition" party, which isn't really, or not fully, true, BUT.... Under that theory, it would seem that when the Republicans introduced legislation to ban abortions, they were doing it purposefully to screw themselves over. Like, why would you, when you have every moderate fed up with the other side? Bah.
In terms of election "shenanigans".... this election was less acute and the stakes less high than in the last one, so I suspect if there were shenanigans (which of course there were none, this is just super hypothetical) they would be on a lower scale in this election, more in line with whatever level of totally nonexistent shenanigans occurred in prior years.
I don't think Republicans understand this issue very well. I will never forget reading an article by a former intern for a Republican member of Congress who was not allowed to go to the bathroom during a meeting. She was menstruating and when she really couldn't wait any longer, told him exactly why she had to leave. He was absolutely shocked. He completely believed that menstrual bleeding was like urinating, something women have full control over. I also remember many things I was told as a girl in Sunday school that indicate those (adult women) teachers didn't understand their own biology at all. So any overarching narrative that requires the Republican party to understand medical facts fails with me.
I hate coastal snobbery. And I live in the belly of the beast: hippermost Brooklyn. But man some of these guys are a dumb bunch of fucking bark-eaters, Graham forgive me.
I appreciate that you included that non-slut shaming list of perfectly mundane happenstances. As soon as the word ' abortion ' comes up a lot of people seem to conveniently forget what a complex system of chemistry a human body really is - and thus how many small things can go wrong with perfect timing.
I think the economy is not bad enough to really rout out the people responsible for it, but it will get that way next year.
Interesting thoughts about abortion. Looks like it was a much bigger deal in my home state of Michigan than I would ever have guessed.
I know my life has been an outlier, but even so, almost every woman I know has recently had the thought, "Holy shit, if the other guys hadn't heard me screaming at that party that one time and he'd done what he was trying to do? I could've ended up required by law to share a child with him." Or has helped a friend through the aftermath of a rape. Or has found out later that an antibiotic would've nullified the pill and gotten on her knees in gratitude that her husband was on a business trip that week. And so on and so forth. These issues are rarely totally unfamiliar to women; rather, they're not often more than one degree of separation away to any woman with sisters or close female friends, anyway.
Definitely familiar. I am a moderate myself on the issue, and I think it’s seldom wise to do anything but walk the middle). I don’t disagree with you; overall it’s a hopeless and sad reason to have a law or not, it is 100% barbaric, and I get that laws are there to protect women but also that children need protection, inside the womb and out, and my conclusion is convoluted. I think there need to be absolute exceptions for violent crimes. The rest is the way life happens and we can’t control it. With every other crime we have appropriate punishment for the offender but do not legally address consequences for the victim (civil trials notwithstanding) so this in theory is a very different sort of law with almost no precedent and it’s right that humans should struggle with it.
The only thing I would say is that your argument for abortion is your argument. The national argument for it is that it isn’t a child, thereby leading to its own set or barbaric conclusions (instead of making rape victims carry a baby to term, they allow viable fetuses to be removed). This is not an admirable position (yours by contrast is compassionate).
This is why I think moderation is necessary - both arguments have fatal flaws.
Anyway. x
PS, also, you're never going to get the American people to vote for fewer rights. Everybody interested in CBDC should take note of this.
Amen.
That's interesting. A lot of the Gen Z 18-29 don't really know what it's like to not have full employment. It's been a buyers job market for a while.
As for the economy, a real test will be whether we go into a full blown energy crisis this upcoming winter- especially for you folks in places that get real winter, IE the Northeast.
Elites are more insulated (pun intended) than the rest of us, and elites run the Corporate Press who are brown-nosers to the regime. Gas prices are sure to pop back up, there are likely shortages of diesel and heating oil, and despite Biden’s abuse of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to effectively subsidize oil prices, that option is about to run out.
We’re likely already in a recession too. Give it a few weeks now that the midterms are over and all the corporate press outlets will be squawking in unison about it.
I listen to friends who are older than me well enough that I started planning for this. I started the winter with a credit with the gas company that was equal to what I spent on gas all *last* winter. I don't expect that to last me all winter, of course, as the shortages are coming and prices will go up, but it should mean I never run into a reason to panic. *fingers crossed*
Gas is one part of it. Electricity is the other. New England is notorious for The Fatal Trifecta. https://greenleapforward.substack.com/p/the-fatal-trifecta-and-an-unpublished
I suspected (from across the pond) that abortion would play badly for the GOP. I always thought the US was more socially conservative on this issue than, say, the UK or France or Italy. But it's not. It's in about the same place - as later polls disclosed. Once that happens with a social issue, the religious conservatives who still uphold their distinctive values on point must simply stop basing their politics on it - because this is what happens otherwise.
If SCOTUS kills affirmative action, however, that, I suspect, will be very popular.
Yes! I didn't vote. Some of my (deeply conservative and even religious) friends in Alabama didn't vote, after realizing that they'd damn well better drive out of state if they have a possible ectopic pregnancy, since "imminent danger of death" is open to interpretation. (Does it require the ectopic to rupture, or not?) My friend in ND voted, but for the others. Abortion might only matter once in someone's life, but when it matters, it *really* matters.
I voted, because there were local constitutional amendments and bond issues I wanted to weigh in on, and there was also one race that *only* had a Democrat and a Libertarian, so, obviously I had to try and help *that* dude out. ;)
I did sort of the opposite thing. There were 12 county judge seats where everyone ran unopposed. I.e., Joe Smith was the Democrat, the Republican, and the conservative party candidate. I simply refused to vote. The fewer votes they have, the less likely they are to think they have a mandate. Of course, our Brooklyn pols are likely too stupid for even that level of ratiocination.
Oh sure. Where it was uncontested, I didn't vote. But I really wanted to vote for a libertarian in a race where they might get a significant percentage of the vote, because it helps them will ballot access in the future. As for bond issues and the like, I feel like they're going to claim *more* of a mandate if it's 90-10 instead of 65-35. So I feel it's important to go be part of the 35 saying "No, you shouldn't spend that money." On a philosophical level, I agree that it shouldn't even be *subject* to a vote, but since it is, I might as well register my displeasure in the one way that's allowed. :-/
I.e. a “protest vote.” Can be dangerous if you accidentally end up voting with the winning side. 😉
I mean... I am definitely libertarian aligned, so, if the worst case scenario is that a libertarian actually *wins* the office of "State Auditor"... well, I can live with that. :D
Oh my god, you’re right about Trump and I hate that. I voted for him twice but I no longer believe that he would be a good choice for our country.
I’m also having a very large and difficult problem reconciling my belief that life begins at implantation, with my “my body, my choice” stance on the Covid shot. I think I’ll fall back on “keep your laws off my body” and say that every abortion should be a decision made with one’s doctor, but I also live in a very Blue state and haven’t had to deal with the intense Christian values that I know exist elsewhere. I’m also 51 and had my tubes tied after my 3rd child was born.
Tough times we live in. Thanks for a good write up.
I think this is a big part of why the Republicans didn't make the advances they should have based on COVID lockdowns and vaccine mandates -- they sneered, "My body, my choice" about vaccines, and then cheered Roe vs Wade being overturned. It seemed like naked political bullshit, not principled objection to authoritarianism. At least, it seemed that way to me.
> they sneered, "My body, my choice" about vaccines
But c'mon now. That was itself obviously a dig at the folks who have been using that slogan for several decades and then turned around and threatened to put people in concentration camps and deny them lifesaving medical care if they refused the Jab.
I *agree* that it's hypocritical, but it's hardly one sided.
But the results are about on par with what I expected once the GOP started sabotaging its own chances with all this abortion crap. (As in, I made this precise prediction in several places. ;) ) I'm disappointed (that they weren't able to be smart about abortion) because I'm pretty sure the only thing that would have potentially staved off a full blown Depression is the adults being in charge of the economy again.
Oh well.
I agree that the "my body my choice" sneering was meant to be a dig, but plenty of them seemingly made serious bodily autonomy arguments, which was such obvious hypocritical bullshit that it made it hard to take them seriously about anything.
And yep, they aren't going to learn a fucking thing. What I'm seeing is mostly "those stupid (c words), I hope they suffer forevermore" and "I used to be moderate on abortion, now I want them all carrying rape babies to term, because fuck them". In which case, the left will win every election forever.
I have insanely low self-esteem and my usual response to abuse is to tolerate it, on and on and on, but even I have too much self-respect to vote for the GOP if it heads in that direction. Hoping very much this is all just day-after bloviating and they don't mean it. Time will tell.
Yeah, I get it. I found the use of the phrase vastly hypocritical from both sides over the last three years. Having the unfortunate ability to be *very* good at Devil's Advocate, I can see how they'd claim that it's different because there's another entity involved in an abortion, and I'd even **agree** that it does make them somewhat different... but not enough to justify overruling the autonomy of the woman involved for a *very* long time. Meaning, at like, 7 months, I feel comfortable declaring that a woman who no longer wished to be pregnant with an otherwise healthy 7 month fetus (and yes, I'm using something that's well past any fuzzy line that might be drawn) should probably be required to remove that fetus in the least destructive manner possible.
I hear you on the self-esteem issue, I have similar problems.
Hanging out in a primarily libertarian environment, what I'm seeing is a lot of denial that the R abortion position had very much to do with the results, and that there's likely election shenanigans. Which is sort of a whole different pile of facepalm, but, whatever. Oi. *facedesk*
Out of curiosity, I just looked up abortion law in Florida. 15 weeks with exceptions for maternal or fetal health. Something imperfect but reasonable. Imagine that! None of the extremist bullshit of the other red states. If only the Republican party could *learn something* from this, then there might be a snowball's chance in hell of a different outcome in 2024.
Narrator: the Republican party would not, in fact, learn a fucking thing.
As in so many things, they need a sane expert to look at their laws before they try to pass them. In this case, an actual doctor. In many other things I care about, someone who actually knows a single fucking thing about computers. Etc, etc, etc.
The issue with your friend in AL should never have happened. Even a "fetal heartbeat" law should have let a woman with a ***dead*** fetus have that removed. I realize I'm preaching to the choir there, but I'm just so utterly appalled at the simple incompetence of merely the legislative process there that I can't not say it.
Trump would immediately be a lame duck. That alone is reason to drop support for him (and there are many others).
It will be very interesting to see how that dynamic would play out.
DeSantis: Trump is a lame duck, he can’t get anything done.
Trump: I’m a lame duck, I can do whatever I want.
People are disappointed. I really thought "not Hochul" would beat Hochul because people were disgusted by what they did to older people, kids, businesses, our cities, etc. Maybe they've moved on. Maybe they don't like change. Maybe they really believe that a Governor could ban abortion in the state of NY if he felt like it, which he couldn't. I think "not Hochul" ran a good campaign. He came really close and this is NY. It's my mistake for daring to hope that someone who did my family harm gets to lord over us again.
Is it just a matter of urban vs rural? I don't know much about NY, but this outcome makes sense to me if people in NYC tend to see the COVID danger one way and be ok with the lockdowns and such, and others disagree, but the NYC population outweighs the rest of the state. Is that what it was?
I think it was mainly fear of change plus the perception that the other guy was an extremist. Because as you know, to progressives, there is only one right, namely the far right. I got a lot of direct mail to that effect, as one would anticipate
In other words, not population alone, because NYC is less than 50% of the population of NYS. 
If people are making political decisions based on their fears then we're politicaly doomed.
Everyone does this, all the time. The reason a red wave was expected is that the general consensus was that people would be *fearful* that Democrats would keep doing what they're doing.
A red wave caused by fear of Democrats bad policy wouldn't be an impovement. I'll maintain that anyone telling you to be afraid is untrustworthy.
Except of being afraid itself, I’m guessing... 😉
You are probably right that this issue might have dampened the Republicans' success more than polls would suggest at first blush.
Also, if one subscribes to the theory that Republicans (or a subset of them) collude with Democrats to always be the minority "fake opposition" party, which isn't really, or not fully, true, BUT.... Under that theory, it would seem that when the Republicans introduced legislation to ban abortions, they were doing it purposefully to screw themselves over. Like, why would you, when you have every moderate fed up with the other side? Bah.
In terms of election "shenanigans".... this election was less acute and the stakes less high than in the last one, so I suspect if there were shenanigans (which of course there were none, this is just super hypothetical) they would be on a lower scale in this election, more in line with whatever level of totally nonexistent shenanigans occurred in prior years.
I don't think Republicans understand this issue very well. I will never forget reading an article by a former intern for a Republican member of Congress who was not allowed to go to the bathroom during a meeting. She was menstruating and when she really couldn't wait any longer, told him exactly why she had to leave. He was absolutely shocked. He completely believed that menstrual bleeding was like urinating, something women have full control over. I also remember many things I was told as a girl in Sunday school that indicate those (adult women) teachers didn't understand their own biology at all. So any overarching narrative that requires the Republican party to understand medical facts fails with me.
I hate coastal snobbery. And I live in the belly of the beast: hippermost Brooklyn. But man some of these guys are a dumb bunch of fucking bark-eaters, Graham forgive me.
I appreciate that you included that non-slut shaming list of perfectly mundane happenstances. As soon as the word ' abortion ' comes up a lot of people seem to conveniently forget what a complex system of chemistry a human body really is - and thus how many small things can go wrong with perfect timing.