Yep, here in the middle of Wisconsin that’s super common. Plenty of places have outright closed due to staffing issues and modified hours are common. A tourist city about an hour and a half north of me is really struggle - McDonald’s there is offering $20 per hour (that’s a lot in the Northwoods) and they’re still struggling to find people. I’ve been tracking our own city hall and they’ve had a record number of people quit this year - double like five years ago. The biggest generation (Boomers) are retiring and the Millennials and Gen Z aren’t nearly big enough in numbers to make up the difference. That’s a big factor.
I can confirm your hypothesis about covid money going to plasma tvs -- got the information directly from our tv shop guy. Also, when gas was $5+ a gallon we were shocked how crowded Vegas was earlier this past year, how could people afford that trip?
I think one missing ingredient is the gig economy. I live in the suburbs of Bucks county in PA. Working for Uber, Doordash, etc. can be painful in an urban setting, but in the suburbs you don't have to worry about parking, crime, and you already have sunk cost into a car and insurance. So many gig workers they tell me it's something fun to do on the weekends for extra cash.
Also I think many older workers retired early during covid so we get a drop in workers bc of that.
A final morbid thought is a lot of elderly died during covid, not sure how many people benefited from any inheritances they have received. There has to be some stat on some government website we could use to confirm this.
According to Edward Dowd, the federal gov't is reporting a 10% increase in disability payments. Add this to the rise in excess deaths among the working age population and I think you have your culprit. Between repeat Covid infections and the shots making people sick (or worse), we've lost a lot of people.
Credit Karma allowed my to gamify fixing my (only mildly bruised but still problematic) credit after college. It was great to be able to identify all the problems and map out precisely when the blemishes would drop off and chart a course to when i would be able to finance a new (to me) car.
Problems with commenters in the past? It's the paying ones you have to watch out for in my experience. Case in point:
CVS, Chili's, Subway? At least no mention of Applebee's. Why Vermont sounds positively quaint. Do they all have those faux hand carved signs that are actually foam injection molded?
I've noticed a lot of business being massively short-staffed here in Louisville, KY, and my company is always hiring people in the $18-$22 range. The problem we see the most often is that people will come in for work, get excited about the job, and then (and this is borne out by exit interviews) decide that it's more work than they want to do, or they don't want to adhere to a rigid schedule. I don't know if that's the driving factor across the board, but it is something we see a LOT. Combined with everything else in the comments here, the work ethic and drive seems to be very lacking among people of all ages lately. Maybe there's just a sense of malaise in America?
Hey Holly, I’ve been following your stuff for quite a while.
As far as the economics of our current time: they are strange. I can’t understand what is going on, but I’d like to draw your attention to M2–the fed’s measurement of how much money exists. Look at the historically bizarre step-function during Covid and how it is dropping now, unlike any time in history. I doubt there is any person alive who can predict all the strange effects of such shocks to the money supply.
1) I've had the debit card refused at Walmart and did the same dance you did. I think Walmart decided to decline the card for a month as punishment for returning merchandise.
2) Credit Karma should consider sponsoring your substack. You are exactly the person they want their customers to aspire to.
Dec 20, 2022·edited Dec 20, 2022Liked by Holly MathNerd
None of this is happening in Ireland. However for a long period during COVID, many shops, restaurants etc would refuse to accept cash. That has changed now. I think a big reason for it changing was the banks charging exorbitant fees for cashless transactions. What did the retailers expect was going to happen?
I live in Florida and have not experienced either of the things you mentioned here. Businesses are booming with crowds and long lines. I see hiring signs pretty much everywhere I go, though. However, I moved here from Oregon and my friend from home just told me that our favorite restaurant, book store AND coffee shop all closed (or are closing soon) due to staffing issues and rising cost of doing business making it not worth it anymore. So sad. :((
Two books came out recently that may provide a partial explanation of what you are seeing in your area: Men Without Work by Nicholas Eberstadt of the American Enterprise Institute (updated this year after the pandemic) and Of Boys and Men by Richard Reeves. Eberstadt claims (and backs it up with painstaking research) that 1 in 7 men of prime working age in the US (25-54) are not in the labor force (He calls them NILFs:). These men are not counted in unemployment numbers because they are not seeking employment. Matt Welch of The Fifth Column Podcast interviewed Eberstadt recently (episode 376: "All the (Unemployed) Young Dudes"). It's a fascinating discussion and the episode is free. Highly recommend. Short answer--they're "watching" (TV, videogames, etc.) and taking pain meds. It's a sad situation.
I own a cafe in Golden, Colorado. We have been having massive staffing issues since COVID ended. I talk to all kinds of small business owners and we can’t figure out where all the workers are. There are still both new and old programs in Colorado with regard to sick time, enhanced health emergency sick time, and now family leave that make it easier to stay home and get paid. Employers can’t even ask employees to prove they are sick. As well, employers have to put up with a lot from poor performers and folks who often don’t show up because without them we couldn’t stay open at all. Folks who are great workers burn out quickly because every business is running understaffed.
Yep, here in the middle of Wisconsin that’s super common. Plenty of places have outright closed due to staffing issues and modified hours are common. A tourist city about an hour and a half north of me is really struggle - McDonald’s there is offering $20 per hour (that’s a lot in the Northwoods) and they’re still struggling to find people. I’ve been tracking our own city hall and they’ve had a record number of people quit this year - double like five years ago. The biggest generation (Boomers) are retiring and the Millennials and Gen Z aren’t nearly big enough in numbers to make up the difference. That’s a big factor.
Ha ha I've been wondering the very same!
I can confirm your hypothesis about covid money going to plasma tvs -- got the information directly from our tv shop guy. Also, when gas was $5+ a gallon we were shocked how crowded Vegas was earlier this past year, how could people afford that trip?
I think one missing ingredient is the gig economy. I live in the suburbs of Bucks county in PA. Working for Uber, Doordash, etc. can be painful in an urban setting, but in the suburbs you don't have to worry about parking, crime, and you already have sunk cost into a car and insurance. So many gig workers they tell me it's something fun to do on the weekends for extra cash.
Also I think many older workers retired early during covid so we get a drop in workers bc of that.
A final morbid thought is a lot of elderly died during covid, not sure how many people benefited from any inheritances they have received. There has to be some stat on some government website we could use to confirm this.
According to Edward Dowd, the federal gov't is reporting a 10% increase in disability payments. Add this to the rise in excess deaths among the working age population and I think you have your culprit. Between repeat Covid infections and the shots making people sick (or worse), we've lost a lot of people.
Credit Karma allowed my to gamify fixing my (only mildly bruised but still problematic) credit after college. It was great to be able to identify all the problems and map out precisely when the blemishes would drop off and chart a course to when i would be able to finance a new (to me) car.
Problems with commenters in the past? It's the paying ones you have to watch out for in my experience. Case in point:
CVS, Chili's, Subway? At least no mention of Applebee's. Why Vermont sounds positively quaint. Do they all have those faux hand carved signs that are actually foam injection molded?
There's a big theatrical musical in Dublin which had to shut down as so many cast and crew fell ill.
I've noticed a lot of business being massively short-staffed here in Louisville, KY, and my company is always hiring people in the $18-$22 range. The problem we see the most often is that people will come in for work, get excited about the job, and then (and this is borne out by exit interviews) decide that it's more work than they want to do, or they don't want to adhere to a rigid schedule. I don't know if that's the driving factor across the board, but it is something we see a LOT. Combined with everything else in the comments here, the work ethic and drive seems to be very lacking among people of all ages lately. Maybe there's just a sense of malaise in America?
Hey Holly, I’ve been following your stuff for quite a while.
As far as the economics of our current time: they are strange. I can’t understand what is going on, but I’d like to draw your attention to M2–the fed’s measurement of how much money exists. Look at the historically bizarre step-function during Covid and how it is dropping now, unlike any time in history. I doubt there is any person alive who can predict all the strange effects of such shocks to the money supply.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL
1) I've had the debit card refused at Walmart and did the same dance you did. I think Walmart decided to decline the card for a month as punishment for returning merchandise.
2) Credit Karma should consider sponsoring your substack. You are exactly the person they want their customers to aspire to.
None of this is happening in Ireland. However for a long period during COVID, many shops, restaurants etc would refuse to accept cash. That has changed now. I think a big reason for it changing was the banks charging exorbitant fees for cashless transactions. What did the retailers expect was going to happen?
I live in Florida and have not experienced either of the things you mentioned here. Businesses are booming with crowds and long lines. I see hiring signs pretty much everywhere I go, though. However, I moved here from Oregon and my friend from home just told me that our favorite restaurant, book store AND coffee shop all closed (or are closing soon) due to staffing issues and rising cost of doing business making it not worth it anymore. So sad. :((
Holly this sounds conspiratorial but perhaps we
had massive numbers of people die over the last 2-3 years due to COVID/Vax/misc.
Think about it, if 10-12% of people died would you even know? I mean I *THINK* it would be obvious, but would it be?
Perhaps that level of death would present itself exactly like what we are seeing today?
Yes. We are seeing the same things in Southern CA/ AZ / TX where I travel frequently. Even pilot shortages are common now as well.
(Counterpoint / there were massive baggage handler shortages in the summer of 2021 that seem to be rectified)
But your overarching hypothesis is valid; the gradual degradation / de-evolution of society is underway.
We now wait 7-12 minutes for a cup of coffee, or in a drive through line for 15 mins for a chicken sandwich. And we just accept it.
Not to sound too moribund but I used to believe that societal progress was inevitable, now I am not so sure.
Two books came out recently that may provide a partial explanation of what you are seeing in your area: Men Without Work by Nicholas Eberstadt of the American Enterprise Institute (updated this year after the pandemic) and Of Boys and Men by Richard Reeves. Eberstadt claims (and backs it up with painstaking research) that 1 in 7 men of prime working age in the US (25-54) are not in the labor force (He calls them NILFs:). These men are not counted in unemployment numbers because they are not seeking employment. Matt Welch of The Fifth Column Podcast interviewed Eberstadt recently (episode 376: "All the (Unemployed) Young Dudes"). It's a fascinating discussion and the episode is free. Highly recommend. Short answer--they're "watching" (TV, videogames, etc.) and taking pain meds. It's a sad situation.
I live in the Houston, TX suburbs and have never seen a store closed due to lack of workers. I’ve seen more than normal ‘help wanted’ signs, though.
I'm in the piedmont of NC and staffing is an issue.
I own a cafe in Golden, Colorado. We have been having massive staffing issues since COVID ended. I talk to all kinds of small business owners and we can’t figure out where all the workers are. There are still both new and old programs in Colorado with regard to sick time, enhanced health emergency sick time, and now family leave that make it easier to stay home and get paid. Employers can’t even ask employees to prove they are sick. As well, employers have to put up with a lot from poor performers and folks who often don’t show up because without them we couldn’t stay open at all. Folks who are great workers burn out quickly because every business is running understaffed.