Great piece. One observation to add about this section:
"In no particular order, here are some other possible answers to the question, “What was the plan?” None are fully discrete from the others, of course. "
Another option is that they believed that this would be a repeat of the 2020 debate where Biden was widely perceived as having won. I.e. Trump would be out of control and self destruct.
I don't think this debate was orchestrated to demonstrate Joe Biden was unsuitable as a candidate. If I recall correctly, the Biden team asked for it as a way to reset the narrative that he wasn't up to it mentally. It just backfired spectacularly on them because they were so caught up in their own BS. See this recent piece from the Washington Post:
I also suspect that if Trump decides he likes her, enough Republicans will get behind it that it won't matter, especially if she's effective at attacking Democrats.
A major part of Trump's base is evangelicals. Choosing Pence as VP enhanced number of people voting for him. I doubt Trump would ever pick her since he has so often denounced Muslims.
Reading that article I'm wondering if Trump had to go through such a big process to prepare for the debate. I don't think he would have to. I think Trump can think on his feet. It's so sick that Democrats think all this huge preparation is required to get a good debate out of Biden. Why does he have to work so hard at something that comes pretty naturally to Trump?
I also saw this quote in the article, "Some allies speculated afterward that those rules may have actually helped Trump by reining in his impulse to interrupt his opponent and play to the crowd, moves that appeared to turn off television viewers in previous debates." and I said the same thing as well. That really helped Trump.
Maybe it was partly that Trump did so well that it scared Biden and he just got nervous in a way that the lawyer pretending to be Trump in the mock debate couldn't prepare Biden for.
I think Trump understands the TV aspect of the debates better than the Biden team and views his audience as the actual voters as opposed to the moderators and the press.
Trump doesn't feel the need to recite a bunch of facts and figures because he knows that only gives the press something else to fact check and doesn't really matter to the people watching.
I think that Biden doesn't really view many people as citizens, perhaps he has dehumanized all the MAGA Republicans enough to not view them as people any longer. He has NEVER tried to win them over. Biden is always divisive in his speeches.
But, like you said, Trump spoke to the people. His response to the abortion issue I thought was great. And maybe some of the more on-the-fence people would be able to see the benefit of having their state vote their own views in. I felt like Trump wasn't talking to the pro-lifers in that moment with his response, he was attempting to win over the pro-choice people playing up the ability they had to choose what their state did. Trump really seemed to be trying to reach out to all parties over the course of the debate.
Wokal's tweet was good. I would love to be a stay-at-home wife. When I'm relaxed (not worried about making the money to pay the mortgage, etc) I actually enjoy organizing, cleaning things, and cooking. But right now that's not in the cards and I DO often feel like I have no place in the Republican party based on their talk about women. Republican men can be so mean and not forgiving at all about women who didn't get married early on. There's a lot of blame, and no understanding at all. I know not all of them feel that way. But, yes, online that's how that particular group of people represent themselves and it definitely repels single or divorced women.
I didn’t look up that tweet and link to it because at the time he tweeted it, the comments were so completely horrifying. Pretty much the idea that any woman might want to have her own dragons to slay or regard anything in her life as a priority other than wife-and-mom was regarded as evidence of something being terribly wrong with that woman. I grabbed the screenshot and tried to forget the comments. The right really doesn’t want women like me to even exist, and part of me wishes I didn’t know that.
Like I said, they can be so mean. That bunch of people (and it's probably just the mostly online group of both men & women) have issues with women unless those women fit their pre-determined wife-and-mom roles. The attitude aligns well with the Men-Going-Their-Own-Way (MGTOW) group. I think of of the MGTOW group as the opposite of feminists: sexist men.
On a political note, they may try to gaslight the nation once again about how with-it Joe seems. They could maybe say he had something wrong, but it's fixed now, and show him seemingly intelligent and with it. The MSM lead a large portion of Democrats around by the nose. They can switch positions by the day without missing a beat.
The advice to Trump to take pity on Biden by not having a second debate is genius. I think it would be perfect, it just needs to be made at the right time, which isn't now but it closer to the second debate, as in after the Dem convention where they may or may not select Biden as candidate
In terms of states where they can't replace Biden, don't forget Ohio. Ohio has a deadline at the start of August and the legislature refused to change it when the Dims noticed their convention was after that date.
Keep in mind a basic fact known to political science geeks like me, namely, that there are distinct institutional wings of each political party—an executive wing, and a congressional or legislative wing. They may share a governing ideology, but they have different self-interests. Members of Congress typically have long careers, while presidents and their appointees are only around for eight years at the most. Uppermost in Chuck Schumer’s mind is keeping a Democratic majority in the Senate, and a humiliating Biden defeat in November threatens that. No Hill Democrat wants to go through a 1980-style wipeout, with Biden reprising Jimmy Carter’s ballot box performance. Keep in mind that Schumer was first elected to the House in 1980.
The incentive structure for the White House staff, cabinet members, and the Democrat client groups who get their lucre from the executive branch is quite different. They are happy to prop up Biden, and in fact a feeble Biden is better for them, as they get to run wild without adult supervision.
To the point of the article you tagged and Holly's correct premise that we are in a de-facto coup, Miranda Devine explains well , the coup before the coup and the intelligence bureaucracy circling the wagons, to protect it's own longevity.
My speculation is MD's governor, Wes Moore. He is black (and that would soothe most folks who would otherwise complain about not letting a woman be POTUS - as if anyone really believes Harris could win) and he's a veteran and fairly centrist. AND while not Oprah, he is her friend and she (such a kingmaker) stumped for him in his gubernatorial run.
I'm going to make a wild suggestion. That the Democrats follow the constitution and replace Biden under the 25th Amendment. Kamala Harris may be as disastrous everyone seems to think she is - including Holly. People thought that of Harry Truman a product of the corrupt Penderghast machine and a failed haberdasher. I remember it being said of Truman that 'sometimes the office makes the man". I think that goes for women too. So I feel strongly that acting in a constitutional way and living with the consequences seems the best way for the Democrats and the establishment Republicans to demonstrate that they can act responsibly in circumstances where it is clear that the President is incompetent. The alternative is to act outside the constitution - to keep Biden and continue with the coup. Perhaps declaring some state of emergency and suspending the Constitution to disqualify Trump from taking office. Without pretending to know how it would be done in the US, I would point to the real world example of how right wing Brazilian president Bolsonaro was barred from running until 2030 by Brazil's supreme court. Likewise the real world Argentine situation where Javier Meli has taken office and begun to dismantle the administrative state is the likely kind of outcome of Trump taking office. Or RFK Jr. for that matter. And well spotted Holly - the Chevron decision snaps into focus the underlying power struggle between the people and the administrative state which has become increasingly obvious since Ross Perot got some traction in the 90s. Don't get me wrong I don't expect the Democratic party to do that any more than I expect them to positively go for victory by drafting RFK Jr. ‘Oh what a tangled web we weave/When first we practice to deceive,’ - Sir Walter Scott
I've agreed that this was the correct thing to do for years now, since Bret Weinstein made the case in April 2022. I just edited this piece to make that more clear and linked to part 1 again. Thanks.
I missed Bret addressing that in 2022 being out here in Western Australia more focused on Covid back then as Omicron finally arrived. Savy center left Democrats like Bret and Heather have been few and far between holding their party to account. Bret's brother Eric put it well when he said "We didn't need two Republican parties"! Perhaps a President Harris in 2022 might have had a chance to succeed or fail on her own merits and the Dems would not be in the current pickle.
In a funny way, that’s probably true to some extent. “Sundowning” is a known phenomenon in dementia as it progresses. There’s typically a long period where the patient is most cognizant during daylight hours.
As usual, I am.in complete agreement with 99.9% of this. The only difference I might have is that I don't think the Biden team expected Trump to say yes to the debate. They offered it on a network he doesn't love with 2 debate moderators who don't love him (though they did a great job) in a studio without a crowd (which he loves, but they hurt him) and promised to mute him along with quite a few other caveats. It was meant to be turned down and he called them on it.
You’re on an excellent roll. Thanks for this.
Thank you!
Great piece. One observation to add about this section:
"In no particular order, here are some other possible answers to the question, “What was the plan?” None are fully discrete from the others, of course. "
Another option is that they believed that this would be a repeat of the 2020 debate where Biden was widely perceived as having won. I.e. Trump would be out of control and self destruct.
I don't think this debate was orchestrated to demonstrate Joe Biden was unsuitable as a candidate. If I recall correctly, the Biden team asked for it as a way to reset the narrative that he wasn't up to it mentally. It just backfired spectacularly on them because they were so caught up in their own BS. See this recent piece from the Washington Post:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/06/30/how-biden-debate-prep-led-to-damaging-event/
As an aside, based on her performance on Bill Maher this past Friday, I think Trump would be well served to pick Tulsi Gabbard as his running mate.
I like her a lot, but she practices some minority religion and I don't think the Christians in the Republican party will stand for it.
Her answer to a question on Bibles in schools during the overtime was interesting.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k0sxzLbA2KM
I also suspect that if Trump decides he likes her, enough Republicans will get behind it that it won't matter, especially if she's effective at attacking Democrats.
A major part of Trump's base is evangelicals. Choosing Pence as VP enhanced number of people voting for him. I doubt Trump would ever pick her since he has so often denounced Muslims.
She's not a Muslim. She's Hindu.
Thanks for the correction. I am so ignorant--I should check.
Reading that article I'm wondering if Trump had to go through such a big process to prepare for the debate. I don't think he would have to. I think Trump can think on his feet. It's so sick that Democrats think all this huge preparation is required to get a good debate out of Biden. Why does he have to work so hard at something that comes pretty naturally to Trump?
I also saw this quote in the article, "Some allies speculated afterward that those rules may have actually helped Trump by reining in his impulse to interrupt his opponent and play to the crowd, moves that appeared to turn off television viewers in previous debates." and I said the same thing as well. That really helped Trump.
Maybe it was partly that Trump did so well that it scared Biden and he just got nervous in a way that the lawyer pretending to be Trump in the mock debate couldn't prepare Biden for.
I think Trump understands the TV aspect of the debates better than the Biden team and views his audience as the actual voters as opposed to the moderators and the press.
Trump doesn't feel the need to recite a bunch of facts and figures because he knows that only gives the press something else to fact check and doesn't really matter to the people watching.
I agree. I recently wrote (and recorded the audio version) about that here: https://www.thedramaofitall.com/p/why-wont-democrats-drop-the-bone
I think that Biden doesn't really view many people as citizens, perhaps he has dehumanized all the MAGA Republicans enough to not view them as people any longer. He has NEVER tried to win them over. Biden is always divisive in his speeches.
But, like you said, Trump spoke to the people. His response to the abortion issue I thought was great. And maybe some of the more on-the-fence people would be able to see the benefit of having their state vote their own views in. I felt like Trump wasn't talking to the pro-lifers in that moment with his response, he was attempting to win over the pro-choice people playing up the ability they had to choose what their state did. Trump really seemed to be trying to reach out to all parties over the course of the debate.
I think in many ways Trump's statements about abortion echo the majority of people. It's a tough choice and there are good arguments on both sides.
True.
He is above all a reality TV star. And he hasn’t left that role
Trump can't absorb a whole bunch of facts and figures so he won't use them no matter what.
I think Biden was much more impaired than they anticipated. You can't prepare for serious cognitive decline.
Wokal's tweet was good. I would love to be a stay-at-home wife. When I'm relaxed (not worried about making the money to pay the mortgage, etc) I actually enjoy organizing, cleaning things, and cooking. But right now that's not in the cards and I DO often feel like I have no place in the Republican party based on their talk about women. Republican men can be so mean and not forgiving at all about women who didn't get married early on. There's a lot of blame, and no understanding at all. I know not all of them feel that way. But, yes, online that's how that particular group of people represent themselves and it definitely repels single or divorced women.
I didn’t look up that tweet and link to it because at the time he tweeted it, the comments were so completely horrifying. Pretty much the idea that any woman might want to have her own dragons to slay or regard anything in her life as a priority other than wife-and-mom was regarded as evidence of something being terribly wrong with that woman. I grabbed the screenshot and tried to forget the comments. The right really doesn’t want women like me to even exist, and part of me wishes I didn’t know that.
Like I said, they can be so mean. That bunch of people (and it's probably just the mostly online group of both men & women) have issues with women unless those women fit their pre-determined wife-and-mom roles. The attitude aligns well with the Men-Going-Their-Own-Way (MGTOW) group. I think of of the MGTOW group as the opposite of feminists: sexist men.
On a political note, they may try to gaslight the nation once again about how with-it Joe seems. They could maybe say he had something wrong, but it's fixed now, and show him seemingly intelligent and with it. The MSM lead a large portion of Democrats around by the nose. They can switch positions by the day without missing a beat.
This would not surprise me one bit.
The advice to Trump to take pity on Biden by not having a second debate is genius. I think it would be perfect, it just needs to be made at the right time, which isn't now but it closer to the second debate, as in after the Dem convention where they may or may not select Biden as candidate
In terms of states where they can't replace Biden, don't forget Ohio. Ohio has a deadline at the start of August and the legislature refused to change it when the Dims noticed their convention was after that date.
BTW this post at powerlineblog (https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2024/06/behind-the-eerie-silence.php ) makes a good point.
quote:
Keep in mind a basic fact known to political science geeks like me, namely, that there are distinct institutional wings of each political party—an executive wing, and a congressional or legislative wing. They may share a governing ideology, but they have different self-interests. Members of Congress typically have long careers, while presidents and their appointees are only around for eight years at the most. Uppermost in Chuck Schumer’s mind is keeping a Democratic majority in the Senate, and a humiliating Biden defeat in November threatens that. No Hill Democrat wants to go through a 1980-style wipeout, with Biden reprising Jimmy Carter’s ballot box performance. Keep in mind that Schumer was first elected to the House in 1980.
The incentive structure for the White House staff, cabinet members, and the Democrat client groups who get their lucre from the executive branch is quite different. They are happy to prop up Biden, and in fact a feeble Biden is better for them, as they get to run wild without adult supervision.
To the point of the article you tagged and Holly's correct premise that we are in a de-facto coup, Miranda Devine explains well , the coup before the coup and the intelligence bureaucracy circling the wagons, to protect it's own longevity.
https://nypost.com/2024/06/26/opinion/how-cia-interference-with-the-spies-who-lie-letter-made-biden-the-president/
yep the Deep State wanted Biden. And you can assume (in fact we know) they will fight to obstruct Trump if he is elected a second time
Without a doubt.
Welp, if someone ever asks me, “How gay is [so and so]”? I now have the best answer. 😹
My speculation is MD's governor, Wes Moore. He is black (and that would soothe most folks who would otherwise complain about not letting a woman be POTUS - as if anyone really believes Harris could win) and he's a veteran and fairly centrist. AND while not Oprah, he is her friend and she (such a kingmaker) stumped for him in his gubernatorial run.
I'm going to make a wild suggestion. That the Democrats follow the constitution and replace Biden under the 25th Amendment. Kamala Harris may be as disastrous everyone seems to think she is - including Holly. People thought that of Harry Truman a product of the corrupt Penderghast machine and a failed haberdasher. I remember it being said of Truman that 'sometimes the office makes the man". I think that goes for women too. So I feel strongly that acting in a constitutional way and living with the consequences seems the best way for the Democrats and the establishment Republicans to demonstrate that they can act responsibly in circumstances where it is clear that the President is incompetent. The alternative is to act outside the constitution - to keep Biden and continue with the coup. Perhaps declaring some state of emergency and suspending the Constitution to disqualify Trump from taking office. Without pretending to know how it would be done in the US, I would point to the real world example of how right wing Brazilian president Bolsonaro was barred from running until 2030 by Brazil's supreme court. Likewise the real world Argentine situation where Javier Meli has taken office and begun to dismantle the administrative state is the likely kind of outcome of Trump taking office. Or RFK Jr. for that matter. And well spotted Holly - the Chevron decision snaps into focus the underlying power struggle between the people and the administrative state which has become increasingly obvious since Ross Perot got some traction in the 90s. Don't get me wrong I don't expect the Democratic party to do that any more than I expect them to positively go for victory by drafting RFK Jr. ‘Oh what a tangled web we weave/When first we practice to deceive,’ - Sir Walter Scott
I've agreed that this was the correct thing to do for years now, since Bret Weinstein made the case in April 2022. I just edited this piece to make that more clear and linked to part 1 again. Thanks.
I missed Bret addressing that in 2022 being out here in Western Australia more focused on Covid back then as Omicron finally arrived. Savy center left Democrats like Bret and Heather have been few and far between holding their party to account. Bret's brother Eric put it well when he said "We didn't need two Republican parties"! Perhaps a President Harris in 2022 might have had a chance to succeed or fail on her own merits and the Dems would not be in the current pickle.
What if noon Biden and 8 PM central time Biden are two COMPLETELY DIFFERENT PEOPLE!!!
In a funny way, that’s probably true to some extent. “Sundowning” is a known phenomenon in dementia as it progresses. There’s typically a long period where the patient is most cognizant during daylight hours.
Totally.
As usual, I am.in complete agreement with 99.9% of this. The only difference I might have is that I don't think the Biden team expected Trump to say yes to the debate. They offered it on a network he doesn't love with 2 debate moderators who don't love him (though they did a great job) in a studio without a crowd (which he loves, but they hurt him) and promised to mute him along with quite a few other caveats. It was meant to be turned down and he called them on it.
Check out this article by Mark Crispin Miller on substack. https://markcrispinmiller.substack.com/p/donald-trump-is-not-the-outsider-so-many-think?utm_campaign=email-post&r=1ej3w&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
He references a book, Code Red which analyzes the inevitability of election theft with computerized ballots: https://www.amazon.com/CODE-RED-Computerized-Election-American/dp/1500319856/ref=sr_1_1?crid=B75XPAMD6ZHN&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.LEjGriz1XlFgrsYArY5PUXfM72DwyduX3VusVBUjpto.7tZFdOxlrM5q4uN7eLRlT308P9PToAUMllfHGjoAPEc&dib_tag=se&keywords=Code+Red+by+Jonathan+Simon&qid=1719885664&sprefix=code+red+by+jonathan+simon%2Caps%2C91&sr=8-1
I’m surprised nobody has floated the idea of Bloomberg replacing Biden. At least that I know of.